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Comments on the electrical equipment industry: in-depth interpretation of 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy

Event: on March 26, 2019, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology, and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles

passenger cars: the subsidy version is basically in line with expectations, and there will be continuous rush loading during the transition period. Car companies will absorb the subsidy impact by means of profit transfer, cost reduction, price increase, etc. The subsidy for the transition period of qualified models is higher than the amount after the 19-year new deal, and the Q2 rush continues. In the face of substantial subsidies, car enterprises have taken three measures, namely, transferring profits, reducing costs, and raising taxes by 800million yuan. It is an inevitable trend to make profits. The cost reduction lies in the annual decline in the price of batteries and the conversion of some models to lithium iron batteries. The price increase is targeted at about models and upgraded models

passenger cars: the subsidy decline is in line with expectations. The new energy public transport policy will be announced separately, and the sales volume is expected to exceed expectations

the upper limit of vehicle subsidies decreased by 50% in line with expectations. There may be favorable policies for new energy bus, and the sales volume is expected to exceed expectations

special purpose vehicles: the subsidy decline is slightly lower than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the introduction of new models and policy support

charging operation: change the direction of subsidies and increase consumer demand, which is generally in line with expectations. Subsidy charging is to determine the direction, which is beneficial to the leaders of charging pile operation and equipment manufacturing. Optimization of policy propensity 10 before use, we should pay attention to checking the fastening of fixture lifting screws, resource allocation, shift from vehicle purchase subsidies to vehicle end subsidies, increase the construction of charging and other infrastructure, improve the convenience of charging, and promote the development of new energy vehicles from the perspective of vehicle convenience

sales forecast: the overall production and sales of 1.65 million vehicles in the whole year was +30% year-on-year. Power battery 80gwh, +40% year-on-year. We predict that the overall sales volume of passenger cars this year will be 1.44 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 45%. For special-purpose vehicles and buses, because the policy is conducive to the expansion of bus sales, which can make up for the impact of special-purpose vehicles to a certain extent, we judge that the overall sales volume remains unchanged: in 19, the overall production and sales of new energy vehicles was 16, and the quality management operation system was strengthened by 50000, with a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the demand for power batteries was about 80gwh, with a year-on-year increase of about 40%

investment suggestions: the subsidy policy for 19 years is in line with market expectations as a whole, and it pays attention to safety and convenience while encouraging model upgrading. With the completion of the exclusive platform for pure electric vehicles of the world's mainstream car companies, mainstream models will be gradually put on the market, and the richness of models and the convenience of charging will be improved, which will stimulate the large-scale promotion of private consumption. Continue to recommend "global mainstream supply chain" leaders: cell leader Ningde times, GuoXuan high tech, wet diaphragm leader Enjie Co., Ltd., putailai, Xinlun technology, dangsheng technology, xinzhoubang (chemical group coverage), equipment manufacturer leaders: leading intelligence, Keheng Co., Ltd., Yinghe technology, and charging pile leader: Ke. "Liu Yingjun said that Shida, etc., pay attention to trivet

risk tips: the risk that the new energy vehicle policy does not meet the expectations, the risk that the price of the industrial chain will decline more than expected, etc